Charting the Action in Ohio and Texas
By Joshua Levy, 02/28/2008 - 3:01pm

As we get closer to the Ohio and Texas primaries, offline polls are showing Barack Obama moving to a tie with Hillary Clinton in Texas, and within six or seven points of her in Ohio.

Although these polls haven't been wholly accurate during the primary season, they at least provide a foothold for observers. Tracking online enthusiasm is a far murkier process; we've been able to show how popular Obama is in the borderless server-world of YouTube, for example, but understanding online enthusiasm at the state level is far more difficult.

We'll try anyway.

First, Yahoo's Buzz data. Today Yahoo's Political Dashboard shows Obama with 76% of the share of searches for Democratic candidates in Texas, compared to 22% for Hillary.

yahoo buzz texas

One week ago Obama was at 66%; that's a pretty big climb in one week.

In Ohio, the numbers are almost identical, despite a small, yet falling, advantage for Clinton in the Real Clear Politics polls (the number to the left).

ohio buzz data

In Ohio last week Obama had a 36% advantage over Clinton, and he now has a 61% advantage.

On to to Eventful. Our Eventful charts show that, nationally, Obama has 75,764 demands to Clinton's 17,698, but more interesting are the state-by-state numbers:

In Ohio, 3,054 total are making demands for Obama versus 1,149 people for Clinton. In Texas, more than 6,000 people are demanding Obama, versus 1,800 for Clinton. In both states, that's three times as many people demanding Obama than demanding Clinton.

Less quantifiable, but just as important, are the Ohio and Texas political blogs. Buckeye State Blog, one of the most-read liberal blogs in Ohio, asked its readers who won last night's debate. About 380 people voted, with 84% of them choosing Obama.

The progressive Texas blogs I've looked at -- among them In The Pink Texas, PinkDome, Burnt Orange Report -- haven't come out strongly for Clinton or Obama, and so aren't as quantifiable.

We also looked at the number of in-the-flesh events being scheduled by supporters on the candidates' sites between now and March 4 (we looked at events occurring within 100 miles of major cities). In Ohio, Obama supporters have scheduled 110 events in the Cleveland area, compared to 16 for Clinton; there are 122 Obama events and 25 Clinton events near Cincinnati.

In the Houston area, Obama has 113 events to 37 for Clinton; in Dallas, it's 103 to 41; and in Austin it's 93 to 7.

We've been pointing out for a while that Obama has had a much larger activist community base using his web tools to organize events; this is further proof of where the energy is on the ground, and where it isn't.

We offer the usual caveats for those interpreting this data: none of it predicts the outcomes of these elections. Instead, these are glimpses of where voter energy is located six days before the next round of primaries. Over the next week, keep your eye on these sources.

Burnt Orange Report endorsed Obama...

Here's the link for the endorsement..

http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4928

In Texas? Read the Burnt Orange Report.

missed it

Ah, we missed that. Thanks!



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