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By Micah L. Sifry, 07/19/2007 - 12:22pm
If visits to a presidential candidate's website are indications of positive voter interest, then there are several things to be learned from some new data that Compete.com, the rapidly growing web analytics company, has just published:
-Voter interest in the Democratic field is a magnitude greater than voter interest in the Republican field. A glance at Compete's blog posts, which depict maps of the country with total visits to each candidate's site, the intensity of interest in the Democrats overall is clearly much stronger than in the Republicans. This confirms something we at techPresident been pointing out since January across such measures as blog posts mentioning the candidates by name (where the Ds lead the Rs two-to-one), or the number of friends the candidates are earning on social networking hubs, or the number of demands being expressed for them to come speak somewhere. It is a very good time to be a Democratic candidate for president of the United States.
-According to data that Compete.com provided to techPresident, the lion's share of unique visits coming from the early states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina are flowing to the Democrats. For example, in terms of site visits from Iowans, 31% went to Edwards, 29% to Obama, and 24% to Clinton.

Site visits from New Hampshire residents focused on Clinton (35%) and Obama (33%).

The same two frontrunners lead in Nevada, though Edwards is doing pretty well there too.

Only in South Carolina does a Republican, Romney, break into the double digits compared to the top Democrats. In general, it should be noted, Romney has generated the most interest from web surfers seeking out Republican candidates.
-The same D vs. R trend is true in the mega-states of California and New York. Interestingly, Clinton edges past Obama in California:

While Clinton dominates in web visits from New Yorkers:
-If intensity matters more than individual visits, the field shifts somewhat, to the advantage of Obama on the Democratic side, while Romney continues to dominate among Republicans. According to additional data provided by Compete.com to techPresident, if you look at time spent on a candidate's site between January and June 2007, among the leading Democrats, Edwards is leading in the early state of Iowa, Clinton is leading in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and Obama in Nevada. but when it comes to uber-Tuesday, Obama is ahead in most of the big primary states like California, Texas, Florida, Illinois, and New Jersey, while Clinton is doing strongest in New York and Edwards in Ohio.
-Among the top Republicans, Romney is leading in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, while Fred Thompson is leading in Iowa (this despite his late entry into the race). Romney is also ahead in most of the large states like California, Texas and Florida, while Giuliani leads in New York and Illinois.
Coming in a second post: how data for web trends from the month of June suggest some shifts in the overall pattern, and spell good news for some candidates...

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